February 10, 2011
'BBC: Hosni Mubarak 'may be stepping down' (Updated)'
Update: Fox News reports that Mubarak will indeed be stepping down tonight and transferring power to the vice president.
From the BBC:
A senior member of Egypt's governing party has told the BBC he "hopes" that President Hosni Mubarak will transfer power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.The question now is not as much as will Mubarak step down, rather what happens when he does. Like Daniel Larison, I haven't really expected it to happen but I haven't been looking forward to the consequences if and when he actually does step down.
Hossan Badrawi, secretary general of the National Democratic Party (NDP), said Mr Mubarak would "most probably" speak to the nation soon.
Larison's view of that scenario:
If the government is overthrown, it will probably have a good effect on reducing the suffering of the people in Gaza by ending the Egyptian part of the blockade, but it would make it easier for Hamas to operate. If the U.S. helps bring the regime down, the message will be that the U.S. pulled the plug on one of the only two Arab states to make peace with Israel. What are the odds that any other Arab state is going to see the benefits of formally recognizing Israel after that? As for Egypt itself, the fall of the regime could unleash terrible religious violence. The Christians of Iraq have already paid a terrible price as a result of the "liberation" of their country. The Copts and other Christians are at risk of facing similar treatment.My guess is that two things are likely certain. The Copts and other Christians will face intolerable suffering and persecution at the hands of the Islamists, and the American liberal-progressives' fantasy (including that of Obama), that somehow the Egyptians will end up with a liberal democracy instead of an Islamic state, will be proven to be shear nonsense.
Cross posted from Hyscience
Posted by Richard at February 10, 2011 11:34 AM