Chinese exports for July were released, and this has led to a tad of oily skepticism. China was targeting a 10% gain for exports this year. In July, all outbound shipments were just 1% above last year, which of course was completely unexpected and all that. Everyone was completely amazed.

Shipments to Europe fell 16%, and shipments to the US were just above flat on a YoY basis. 

Of course, following the same logic, we read that this just makes stimulus more certain. However, no one can adequately explain how Chinese stimulus would fix buying power in the US and in Europe, so let's just say that the Chinese are going to have to focus on internal demand for the nonce.

Speaking of demand, the Chinese government announced that it would raise gas and oil prices internally as a result of the recent increase in costs for oil. This should prove very stimulative, I'm sure.

India has gotten itself into a terrible situation, because it is forcing sales of fuel below cost, but it has forgotten to pay the compensation to the companies handed this bowl of rice. The banking focus begins to shift to bad loans, etc. A poorish monsoon isn't helping at all. The latest estimate is close to 20% down, which will have a major impact.

One of the problems with Indian infrastructure is that when you control the final price of commodities like fuel, people don't want to build power plants and such like infrastructure, and banks don't want to lend on them, because they are not sure the payments will roll through.

The likely explanation for the big negative Chinese figure on exports is that work was slack, so orders were filled and shipped more quickly. Therefore averaging June/July would give you a more representative number on exports. However that number is low enough to cause deep concern. 

US 30 year auction was crappy. The rubber bands are all pulled tight, and now the snap-backs begin, and each time one of them breaks or snaps back, the pressure on all the rest of them increases.

Note that you can see the impact of lower shipments in rail container figures, which are beginning to come off their annual pace.