Aggregator • MaxedOutMama • ID=79462
I never have too much faith in these numbers, but China reported Q2 GDP at 1.8%, which is equivalent to about a 7.3 or 7.4% annual increase. This takes the rolling four-quarter GDP increase to 7.6%. Since we are now at the target levels, everyone anticipates that China will do more stimulating. The question is how much it can do, and what the negative consequences will be. Their last attempt had some very negative consequences, and the current government is reluctant to jump into the deep end of the stimulus pool again.
The US has now outstripped the EU as China's largest export market, so the US retail outlook assumes even more significance for China. This is not good news for China!
An alternate measure of economic growth trends in China is power output. We only have that through May, but the accumulated (YTD) growth rate and YoY were 5.5% and 4.5% (see the bottom of this release). In the Jan-Feb period the YoY was 9.7%, so you can see that a very real degradation has developed. In May of 2011, the increase was 11% and 10.9%.
Singapore contracted in the quarter, due to manufacturing. It was a small contraction, but their YoY real GDP increase is 1.9% following 1.4% in the previous quarter, and this is pretty darned bad for Singapore. However they have capacity constraints of different kinds, and domestically-generated GDP would be higher were this not so. It is, however, a measure of growing weakness in the region. ... more