Home 
Aggregator Who Will Be President in 2013? 78694
|
This
is a rewrite of our original article that appeared on February 11th now
that we know that the candidates will be Obama and Romney. The obvious
answer to the question of who will win is that it depends upon what
happens between now and then. As the 2000 presidential election reminded
us, it is all about electoral votes. The electoral votes have changed
since 2000 thanks to the 2010 census which transferred electoral votes
from blue states to red states on the whole making it easier for a
Republican to win.
First
you need to forget just about everything you think you know about
winning a presidential election because it is a whole new ballgame as a
result of the change in electoral votes and therefore which states are
battleground states. The answer to which party will control the White
House comes down to a mere handful of states. You can forget about
polling nationwide for which party will win the Presidency in 2012
because you only need to poll the new battleground states to know the
answer.
Let's
begin by looking at the revised electoral vote picture for the 2012
election. In the original article, this table was ordered using the
2000 to 2008 average but now it is a matter of how many states Obama
will lose in 2012 compared to 2008, if any. Thus this table is now
ordered by the 2008 results:
| Party |
State |
2008 Margin |
2004 Margin
|
2000 Margin |
00-08 Margin |
2012 Votes |
Party Totals |
| D |
District of Columbia |
85.74% |
79.84% |
76.21% |
80.59% |
3 |
3 |
| D |
Hawaii |
45.26% |
8.75% |
18.33% |
24.12% |
4 |
7 |
| D |
Vermont |
37.01% |
20.14% |
9.93% |
22.36% |
3 |
10 |
| D |
Rhode Island |
27.85% |
20.75% |
29.10% |
25.90% |
4 |
14 |
| D |
New York |
26.69% |
18.29% |
24.98% |
23.32% |
29 |
43 |
| D |
Massachusetts |
25.81% |
25.16% |
27.30% |
26.09% |
11 |
54 |
| D |
Maryland |
25.44% |
12.98% |
16.39% |
18.27% |
10 |
64 |
| D |
Illinois |
25.10% |
10.34% |
12.02% |
15.82% |
20 |
84 |
| D |
Delaware |
25.00% |
7.60% |
13.06% |
15.22% |
3 |
87 |
| D |
California |
24.06% |
9.94% |
11.08% |
15.27% |
55 |
142 |
| D |
Connecticut |
22.37% |
10.36% |
17.47% |
16.73% |
7 |
149 |
| D |
Maine |
17.32% |
8.99% |
5.12% |
10.48% |
4 |
153 |
| D |
Washington |
17.18% |
7.18% |
5.58% |
9.98% |
12 |
165 |
| D |
Michigan |
16.47% |
3.42% |
5.13% |
8.34% |
16 |
181 |
| D |
Oregon |
16.35% |
4.16% |
0.44% |
6.98% |
7 |
188 |
| D |
New Jersey |
15.57% |
6.68% |
15.81% |
12.69% |
14 |
202 |
| D |
New Mexico |
15.13% |
0.79% |
0.06% |
4.80% |
5 |
207 |
| D |
Wisconsin |
13.90% |
0.38% |
0.22% |
4.84% |
10 |
217 |
| D |
Nevada |
12.49% |
2.59% |
3.54% |
2.12% |
6 |
223 |
| D |
Pennsylvania |
10.32% |
2.50% |
4.17% |
5.66% |
20 |
243 |
| D |
Minnesota |
10.24% |
3.48% |
2.41% |
5.38% |
10 |
253 |
| I |
New Hampshire |
9.61% |
1.37% |
1.27% |
3.24% |
4 |
257 |
| I |
Iowa |
9.53% |
0.67% |
0.31% |
3.06% |
6 |
263 |
| I |
Colorado |
8.95% |
4.67% |
8.36% |
1.36% |
9 |
272 |
| I |
Virginia |
6.30% |
8.20% |
8.03% |
3.31% |
13 |
266 |
| I |
Ohio |
4.54% |
2.10% |
3.51% |
0.36% |
18 |
253 |
| I |
Florida |
2.82% |
5.01% |
0.01% |
2.21% |
29 |
235 |
| R |
Indiana |
1.03% |
20.68% |
15.64% |
11.76% |
11 |
206 |
| R |
North Carolina |
0.33% |
12.44% |
5.53% |
5.88% |
15 |
195 |
| R |
Missouri |
0.13% |
7.20% |
3.34% |
3.56% |
10 |
180 |
| R |
Montana |
2.26% |
20.51% |
25.08% |
15.95% |
3 |
170 |
| R |
Georgia |
5.21% |
16.60% |
11.69% |
11.17% |
16 |
167 |
| R |
South Dakota |
8.41% |
21.47% |
22.74% |
17.54% |
3 |
151 |
| R |
Arizona |
8.52% |
10.47% |
6.29% |
8.43% |
11 |
148 |
| R |
North Dakota |
8.63% |
27.36% |
27.60% |
21.20% |
3 |
137 |
| R |
South Carolina |
8.98% |
17.08% |
15.94% |
14.00% |
9 |
134 |
| R |
Texas |
11.77% |
22.87% |
21.32% |
18.65% |
38 |
125 |
| R |
West Virginia |
13.12% |
12.86% |
6.33% |
10.77% |
| |
...
more
